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Expiry Forecast — EOIs due to reach two years

An EOI lapses two years after it is lodged unless it is invited first, which means part of every pool has a known end date. This view projects those dates forward, so you can see when a pool is arithmetically due to shed EOIs.

Not migration advice. Expiry is not the same as an invitation, and a shrinking pool is not progress. This is a projection from lodgement dates, not a forecast of what applicants will do.
Illustrative projection, not live counts.

What this view measures

Bars project, month by month, how many EOIs in the selected pool reach the two-year mark, based on when they were lodged.

Reading the chart

A tall bar a few months out means a large cohort lodged two years before that point. Whether those EOIs actually lapse depends on whether they are invited or re-lodged in the meantime.

People whose EOI is about to lapse often lodge a fresh one, which appears as new arrivals rather than as continuity, so an expiry wave and an arrival wave can offset each other.

What the figure represents

Expiry is a large and under-appreciated reason pools shrink. Before attributing a fall to invitations, check whether the age profile suggested it was coming anyway.

In the dashboard

Set the visa, optionally narrow to an occupation, then read the projection next to How Old Is the Queue — the two views describe the same fact from different ends.

Expiry Forecast is behind sign in. Occupation Trends is open in the guest trial.

Expiry Forecast is behind sign in. Occupation Trends for 189 and 190 plus five occupations is open in the guest trial.

For applicants

Know your own two-year date, and treat it as a diary entry rather than a cliff — a lapsed EOI can be replaced, though the new one starts fresh in the ordering.

For migration professionals

The right chart for a re-lodgement conversation, held before the date rather than after it.

Limits of this view

It projects from lodgement dates only. It cannot know who will be invited first, who will withdraw, or who will re-lodge.

Common questions

What happens when an EOI expires?

It leaves the pool. A new EOI can be lodged, but it enters the ordering as a new lodgement rather than keeping the old date.